Cook Political Report: 15 House races could flip U.S. House majority in November
Six are in Republican districts in Texas, Florida
According to a new Cook Political Report analysis, 15 congressional races could determine the majority in the U.S. House in November.
The analysis argues the Republican Party is on track to lose the House majority, pointing to 15 races it says have shifted left.
The main reason for the shift is the economy, it says, pointing to polls of voters who blame President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the conflict against Iran for driving up costs exponentially. Many voters who previously supported Trump have now soured on his policies including in red districts in Texas and Florida.
“The most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won,” the analysis states. This year, Trump has hurt these races “in large part due to his handling of the economy.” Trump “is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.”
With Republicans already only holding a slim majority in the House, Democrats only need to gain three seats in November to win the majority.
“The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 — a fairly slim majority in modern U.S. history. That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding,” the analysis states.
The Cook Political Report has also labeled 17 Republican seats and five Democratic seats as toss ups. “Republicans would need to win a majority of Toss Up races to hold the House — not impossible, but incredibly difficult,” it says.
It also adjusted 15 House races as shifting left. The majority – three each in Texas and Florida – are in districts that Trump previously won. Now, Trump could largely contribute to Republicans he’s endorsed losing their races, including in Texas and Florida, which enacted redistricting laws. Neither state is expected to see redistricting translate to Republican gains, Cook and other political analyses have found.
“In Texas and Florida, Republicans are losing ground with many of the Hispanic voters with whom they made major inroads in 2024. As a result, heavily Hispanic seats in South Texas and South Florida that voted for Trump by double digits are now hosting highly competitive races,” the analysis states.
Poll after poll shows Republicans are in trouble in south Texas – a region that flipped red voting for Trump in the last two elections, The Center Square reported. Republicans are seeing dropping support among Texas Hispanic voters citing the economy.
The Cook analysis points to Republican candidates in trouble in congressional districts 15, 35 and 9. Other analysists point to south Texas districts 15, 28 and 34.
The Cook report and others have moved CD 15 from leans Republican to a toss-up.
In this race, incumbent U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz is being challenged by a Democrat who has never been elected to office, Latin singer Bobby Pulido. His campaign controversy includes allegations of foreign interference, cartel connections, being anti-law enforcement, longtime connections to a registered sex offender, dressing like a woman, and appearing to perform lewd acts in a music video, The Center Square reported.
Cook downgraded the ratings of CD 35 from likely Republican to leans Republican and CD 9’s from solid Republican to likely Republican.
In Texas’ new CD 35 in the San Antonio region, Monica De La Cruz’s brother, Republican Carlos De La Cruz, is running against Democrat Johnny Garcia. In Texas’ new CD 9 in the Houston area, Democrat Leticia Gutierrez and Republican Alex Mealer are running.
In both districts, none of the candidates have ever been elected to public office.
Cook shifted three Florida races left: 22, 27 and 13.
In Florida’s new CD 22, the open race is now considered a toss-up. Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar are running for the new CD 22. Neither has ever been elected to public office. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, D-West Palm Beach, of the old CD 22, is running for reelection in the new CD-23.
Cook also downgraded the races of incumbent Republican U.S. Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar (CD 27) and Anna Paulina Luna (CD 13) from likely Republican to leans Republican. Miami news broadcaster Eliott Rodriques is challenging Salazar. Democrat Leela Gray and Tony D’Arrigo, with no party affiliation, are challenging Luna.
Salazar and Trump have had a public feud over her opposition to his deportation policies. Luna has been a vocal critic of the president and his administration for not releasing the Epstein files in their entirety in accordance with federal law.
Other U.S. House races Cook identifies as leaning left include NC-11 (toss up), NJ-7 (lean D), and AZ-1 (lean D).
It also downgraded six races, three from likely Republican to leaning Republican (CO-5, MT-1, WI-1) and three from solid Republican to likely Republican (NV-2, VA-5 and NY-21).
Sunny
